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Rethinking the Fall Selling Season
Protecting Margin, Plant Value and the Independent Garden Center Brand
Market Research Paper — Independent Garden Center Industry
August 2026
Executive Summary
For decades, the independent garden center industry has largely treated fall as a secondary selling season following the critical spring months. The conventional playbook is familiar: bring in mums, asters, ornamental grasses, pumpkins and fall décor; promote fall planting; and, as the calendar advances, progressively mark down remaining plant inventory.
That approach deserves reconsideration.
Recent consumer research indicates that fall is not simply a liquidation period. It is a legitimate gardening and decorating season with significant consumer demand. Proven Winners’ 2025 retail research, based on more than 7,500 plant purchasers, found that 34% of consumers shop for plants in fall, while another 39% report shopping for plants year-round. More importantly for independent garden centers, consumers identify plant quality and selection as leading considerations, while IGC customers place greater importance on service than price.
The perennial category demonstrates the opportunity even more clearly. Proven Winners’ 2025 perennial research, involving more than 14,000 gardeners, found that nearly half purchased perennials during September or October. Quality was the single most important purchasing factor for 43% of respondents, and 81% reported purchasing perennials from an independent garden center.
These findings challenge an industry habit of competing for fall business primarily through markdowns.
Academic retail research provides an additional warning. Price promotions can alter consumers’ perceptions of product quality, establish lower reference prices and create uncertainty about why merchandise has been discounted. Deep discounts are particularly capable of signaling inferior quality rather than merely exceptional value.
For independent garden centers, therefore, excessive fall discounting presents two related risks:
- Immediate margin erosion.
- Long-term erosion of the perceived value of fall plants and the garden center itself.
The industry should consider repositioning fall from a clearance season to a premium seasonal gardening and outdoor-living season, using merchandising, education, exclusivity, bundles, events and loyalty incentives to create value without routinely reducing the price of the plant.
1. The Fall Opportunity Is Larger Than the Industry Often Treats It
Spring will almost certainly remain the dominant season for independent garden centers. Weather improves, consumers begin gardening, Mother’s Day generates traffic, and years of consumer behavior reinforce spring as gardening season.
But this creates an unintended consequence.
By the time August arrives, many retailers psychologically shift from selling mode to inventory-reduction mode.
Plants begin to be viewed internally according to how quickly they need to leave the store.
The customer, however, may see something different.
Proven Winners’ research suggests fall remains a meaningful plant-purchasing season. Thirty-four percent of surveyed consumers reported shopping for plants during fall, and 39% shop throughout the year.
For perennials, fall demand is particularly notable. Nearly half of respondents to Proven Winners’ perennial survey reported buying perennials in September or October.
This suggests an important distinction:
The problem may not be insufficient consumer interest in fall gardening. The problem may be how the industry packages, presents and prices the season.
Garden Center magazine has similarly characterized shoulder seasons as an underdeveloped opportunity and notes that independent retailers face competition from big-box stores that frequently use very low prices to generate traffic. Its recommendation is essentially to make the garden center more of a destination rather than accepting declining shoulder-season traffic as inevitable.
That distinction is strategically important.
An independent garden center attempting to defeat a mass merchant through price is choosing the competitive dimension on which the mass merchant is structurally strongest.
2. The Margin Problem With Fall Markdowns
Markdowns produce an obvious mathematical problem.
Consider a plant retailing for $40 with a landed cost of $20.
At full retail:
Selling price: $40
Gross margin dollars: $20
Gross margin: 50%
At 20% off:
Selling price: $32
Gross margin dollars: $12
Gross margin: 37.5%
At 30% off:
Selling price: $28
Gross margin dollars: $8
Gross margin: 28.6%
At 40% off:
Selling price: $24
Gross margin dollars: $4
Gross margin: 16.7%
At 50% off:
Selling price: $20
Gross margin dollars: $0
The effect is more severe than many consumers—or employees—intuitively recognize.
A 20% reduction in selling price does not reduce gross margin dollars by 20% in this example.
It reduces them by 40%.
A 30% markdown reduces gross margin dollars by 60%.
This means a garden center needs substantial incremental unit volume simply to generate the same gross-margin dollars.
The financial issue becomes particularly significant because the broader independent garden center industry is already operating in a more difficult environment. Garden Center magazine’s 2025–2026 State of the Industry report described slowing growth following the pandemic-era surge and characterized spring 2025 as one of the industry’s least profitable springs of the previous decade.
When margins are already under pressure, automatically surrendering margin during a potentially significant fall selling period deserves scrutiny.
3. Discounting Does More Than Reduce Margin
The more important issue may be psychological rather than mathematical.
Consumers use price as information.
A substantial body of retail research demonstrates that discounts can affect perceptions of quality as well as perceptions of value.
Research published in the Journal of Retailing found that retail discount depth affects consumer quality perceptions. At high discount levels, consumers may attribute the promotion to the product itself and infer lower quality.
Earlier Journal of Retailing research similarly found that negative quality inferences can undermine the perceived value created by discounts, particularly when consumers receive no other assurance of product quality.
Research into promotional frequency adds another problem: frequent promotions can condition consumers toward a lower reference price, which can subsequently influence their quality evaluations.
The garden center industry should pay particular attention to this phenomenon because plants are unusually dependent upon perceived quality.
Consumers cannot perfectly evaluate:
- root development,
- plant vigor,
- future flowering,
- disease resistance,
- winter survivability,
- transplant success,
- future size,
- or overall genetic performance
while standing in the garden center.
They rely upon signals.
Those signals include appearance, branding, merchandising, employee recommendations—and price.
A sign reading:
FALL PERENNIALS — 40% OFF
may therefore communicate two entirely different messages.
The retailer intends:
Great time to buy plants.
The consumer may interpret:
These plants are getting old.
That is a potentially expensive communication failure.
4. The Quality Paradox
This creates what might be called the Fall Quality Paradox.
Independent garden centers frequently differentiate themselves from mass merchants by emphasizing:
- healthier plants,
- better varieties,
- knowledgeable employees,
- locally appropriate selections,
- superior horticultural expertise,
- unusual plants,
- and better customer service.
Current consumer research supports that positioning.
Proven Winners found that plant quality and selection rank highly among consumers’ shopping priorities, while IGC shoppers particularly value knowledgeable staff, unique plants and the overall experience.
Their perennial research reinforces the point: 43% identified quality as their most important factor when selecting perennials.
Yet aggressive fall markdowns can communicate precisely the opposite message.
The garden center spends spring establishing:
Our plants are worth more because they’re better.
Then spends fall communicating:
These plants are worth less because it’s September.
Consumers notice patterns.
Eventually the calendar itself becomes a pricing signal.
5. Training Customers to Wait
Repeated seasonal discounting creates another strategic danger: promotion conditioning.
When customers learn that markdowns predictably occur, delaying purchases becomes rational.
Why purchase a $39.99 perennial today if experience suggests it will be $29.99 shortly?
Why buy three shrubs in September if October historically means 30% off?
The retailer unintentionally teaches customers:
The longer you wait, the better the price becomes.
Research into promotional frequency supports the underlying concern that repeated promotions can alter consumers’ reference prices.
Once customers internalize the promotional price as the appropriate price, returning merchandise to full retail becomes more difficult.
The retailer has therefore lost more than the margin from one sale.
It may have lowered the consumer’s perception of what the product should cost.
6. Fall Should Be Merchandised as a Different Season
A potentially better model is to stop attempting to recreate spring in September.
Consumers have different motivations in fall.
Spring gardening is frequently about:
Planting.
Fall consumption can be about:
Decorating, refreshing and preparing.
That distinction creates an opportunity.
Rather than merchandising isolated commodities—
Mums
Pumpkins
Asters
Grasses
Perennials
Pansies
—the garden center can merchandise finished fall solutions.
Examples include:
The Fall Front Porch
Mums + pumpkins + grasses + decorative containers + porch décor.
Fall Container Refresh
Remove tired summer annuals and replace them with mums, ornamental peppers, grasses, kale, pansies and complementary foliage.
Industry merchandising coverage has similarly encouraged retailers to expand fall combinations beyond mums and create mixed containers using annuals, perennials and foliage plants to keep consumers engaged with outdoor spaces beyond spring.
Fall Pollinator Garden
Asters + sedum + goldenrod + echinacea + native grasses.
Plant Now for Spring
Trees + shrubs + perennials + bulbs.
Fall Color Collection
Plants selected specifically for foliage, berries, bark and late flowers.
In each case, the conversation moves away from:
How much is this plant discounted?
and toward:
What can I create with this?
7. Replace Discounting With Value Creation
Price reductions are only one form of promotion.
Garden centers have many alternatives.
Instead of:
25% OFF FALL PERENNIALS
consider:
Plant Three for Fall Color — Receive a $15 Spring Reward
Instead of:
MUMS 3 FOR $20
consider:
Fall Porch Collection — Mum + Pumpkin + Grass + Decorating Guide
Instead of:
TREES & SHRUBS 30% OFF
consider:
Fall Is for Planting — Complimentary Planting Consultation With Purchase
Instead of reducing the value of the merchandise, these strategies add value to the transaction.
Academic promotional research provides some support for this direction. Research comparing price discounts with premium promotions notes that discounts can reduce reference prices, undermine quality perceptions and potentially damage brand equity, making non-price promotional alternatives worthy of consideration.
This principle aligns particularly well with independent garden centers because service and expertise are already competitive advantages.
8. Loyalty Programs Can Change the Economics
A garden center with a mobile app or loyalty program has an additional advantage.
Rather than discounting today’s merchandise, the retailer can reward today’s purchase with future value.
For example:
Fall Planting Bonus
Spend $100 on trees, shrubs or perennials during September and receive a $15 reward redeemable next spring.
The consumer perceives a benefit.
The plant maintains its full retail price.
And the promotion creates another visit.
This is fundamentally different from a 15% markdown.
The markdown says:
This plant is worth less today.
The reward says:
Your relationship with our garden center is worth more.
That distinction has implications for both brand equity and customer lifetime value.
9. Inventory Discipline Is Still Essential
None of this means markdowns should disappear.
Living inventory is perishable inventory.
Weather changes.
Plant quality deteriorates.
Seasonal merchandise loses relevance.
Some inventory must be liquidated.
The strategic issue is whether markdowns should be planned exceptions or the central fall marketing strategy.
Garden-center industry pricing commentary has long advocated progressive, deliberate liquidation rather than indiscriminate discounting, with the goal of extracting maximum margin dollars before merchandise loses salability.
A more disciplined framework might classify inventory into four categories:
A — Premium
Excellent condition and seasonally relevant.
Action: Full price.
B — Sellable
Healthy but moving beyond peak presentation.
Action: Bundle, reposition or add value.
C — Exit
Quality declining or seasonal relevance disappearing.
Action: Targeted markdown.
D — Unsellable
Product no longer represents the garden center’s quality standards.
Action: Remove it.
This prevents one of the most damaging retail practices in horticulture:
putting a sale sign in front of unattractive plants.
At that point the retailer is advertising poor quality.
10. The Bigger Opportunity: Rebrand Fall
The industry’s long-term opportunity may be to build fall into something consumers anticipate in the same way they anticipate spring.
That requires moving away from:
Fall Clearance
and toward:
Fall Gardening Season
The emotional proposition changes as well.
Spring says:
Start your garden.
Fall can say:
Fall back in love with your garden.
The message can encompass decorating, planting, entertaining, outdoor living, harvest, pollinators, bulbs, houseplants, workshops and preparation for the following spring.
Garden centers that incorporate experiences can expand this further. Industry examples show fall events, workshops and agritourism generating additional traffic and plant sales rather than relying exclusively upon plant-price reductions.
The objective is not simply extending the season.
It is giving consumers a reason to return.
11. Strategic Recommendations for Independent Garden Centers
The evidence supports several recommendations.
Protect the perceived value of healthy plants.
A healthy $39.99 hydrangea does not suddenly become intrinsically less valuable because the calendar changed from August to September.
Stop storewide plant markdowns whenever possible.
Markdown specific SKUs based upon inventory exposure and condition rather than discounting entire categories.
Merchandise outcomes rather than products.
Sell the porch, pollinator garden, fall container, firepit setting or spring-bulb garden.
Lead with quality.
Explicitly tell consumers why fall plants are healthy, established and ready to plant.
Use employees as the differentiator.
IGC customers already value knowledgeable service.
Create bundles instead of discounts.
Bundling makes direct price comparison more difficult while increasing transaction size.
Shift incentives into future rewards.
Generate spring visits rather than sacrificing today’s margin.
Develop fall-exclusive products.
Unique combinations, locally appropriate plant collections and proprietary containers reduce commodity comparison.
Use education aggressively.
Explain fall planting benefits, root establishment, watering and overwintering.
Measure gross-margin dollars—not merely sell-through.
A promotion that increases unit movement while destroying margin is not automatically successful.
12. A Proposed Industry Experiment
Independent garden centers could test this thesis quantitatively.
Comparable locations—or comparable product categories within a retailer—could test three promotional models:
| Strategy | Group A | Group B | Group C |
|---|---|---|---|
| Promotion | 25% markdown | Full price + bundle | Full price + future reward |
| Measure | Units sold | Units sold | Units sold |
| Measure | Revenue | Revenue | Revenue |
| Measure | Gross-margin dollars | Gross-margin dollars | Gross-margin dollars |
| Measure | Average transaction | Average transaction | Average transaction |
| Measure | Repeat visits | Repeat visits | Repeat visits |
| Measure | Customer quality perception | Survey | Survey |
The central metric should not be units sold.
It should be:
Gross Margin Dollars per Customer
followed by:
Customer Lifetime Value
If a garden center sells 20% fewer plants but generates substantially more gross-margin dollars and preserves its premium position, the apparent loss in unit volume may actually represent better retail performance.
Conclusion
Independent garden centers have something mass merchants struggle to replicate: credibility.
Consumers come to them for quality plants, knowledgeable people, unusual varieties and trusted recommendations. Current consumer research continues to demonstrate the importance of these advantages.
That makes habitual fall discounting particularly problematic.
Discounting does not merely change price.
Price communicates.
A garden center that repeatedly marks healthy plants down as fall progresses may unintentionally tell customers that those plants are deteriorating, undesirable or overpriced at regular retail.
It can also teach customers to wait.
The more sustainable strategy is not necessarily to eliminate markdowns. It is to change their role.
Markdowns should become a precision inventory-management tool, not the identity of the fall selling season.
The larger opportunity is to reposition fall around decorating, planting, outdoor living, education, experiences and preparation for spring—and to make quality rather than price the primary reason for purchasing.
The independent garden center industry’s question should therefore change.
Instead of asking:
“How much do we need to mark this down to get rid of it?”
retailers should first ask:
“How can we make this worth full price?”
That change in thinking could make fall not merely a longer selling season, but a considerably more profitable one.
